Findings
„Menschen in Deutschland: International“: Findings from the third wave in April 2023
The third wave of the online survey "Menschen in Deutschland: International" (MiDInt) took place from April 25 to May 16, 2023. It reached n=3,426 people from whom usable data are available.
A review of the sociodemographic characteristics of the reached sample shows that these results can be classified as approximately representative for the German-speaking adult population in Germany. In terms of quality, the sample of the third wave of the survey corresponds to a large extent to what was achieved in the first and second waves. In this respect, comparisons of changes over time based on these two data sources are possible without significant distortions.
For more information on the sample reached and the survey instrument used in this wave of the survey, see:
Richter, T., Brettfeld, K., Wetzels, P. Kleinschnittger, J. & Farren, D. (2023). Menschen in Deutschland: International (MiDInt) Untersuchungsdesign, Stichprobe, Erhebungsinstrument und Codebuch zu Welle 3 (April/Mai 2023). MOTRA-Forschungsbericht No. 9 aus dem Institut für Kriminologie an der Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft. Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. https://doi.org/10.25592/uhhfdm.12625
Results on the topic: Attitudes towards democracy and the spread of autocracy acceptance against the background of current social challenges and economic problems
Similar to the first and second waves of the MiDInt survey, the third wave also addressed concerns in the population that are closely related to developments that can be observed worldwide and thus are not limited to Germany. Examples of such international, transnationally relevant developments are: the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still having repercussions, the war in Ukraine and its economic, social and political consequences for Germany, global climate change and its consequences in terms of floods, droughts and heat waves, but also related concerns with regard to future living opportunities and the everyday life of people, the increasing migration and refugee movements to Europe and Germany, and the very current economic developments both with regard to the overall economy and with regard to its precipitation in terms of problems and restrictions in ensuring the fulfillment of everyday basic needs.
At the national level, such a confluence of global crises can lead to a series of new and serious social challenges, some of which people view with concern or are perplexed by. Moreover, these are phenomena that are also associated with considerable economic burdens. These can exacerbate social upheavals or give rise to new ones and thus also call social cohesion into question. Under certain circumstances, this can have very serious consequences for political culture, especially for the acceptance of a liberal democracy and its institutions. The issues addressed here were important subjects of the surveys in the third wave of the MiDInt study.
The initial results show that such current societal challenges related to international developments are indeed of considerable concern to a large majority of the population.
For example, 61.7% stated that they are "very concerned" about possible further price increases. A decline in the performance of the German economy is a major concern for significantly fewer people, at 28.1%. The extent of the influx of refugees worries 44.8%. Concerns about the consequences of climate change are only slightly lower (32.3% are "very" and 41.7% "somewhat" concerned about this). Including the category "worries me somewhat," more than 60% of respondents expressed concerns in each of the five problem areas surveyed.
Moreover, the more concerns respondents experience at the same time, the stronger their doubts about our democracy's ability to cope with the problems our society is currently facing. It is true that a large majority of over 70% are in favor of democracy as the best form of government. At the same time, however, only 17.6% are completely convinced that democracy can successfully solve current societal problems. 34.3% are skeptical about democracy's ability to solve problems.
This is also related to the degree of concern experienced by the respondents. Individuals who express strong concerns about two or more challenges (39.9%) are unlikely to believe that democracy is capable of solving problems. Individuals who express strong concerns about only one or none of the societal challenges surveyed show such skepticism only 27.1% of the time, significantly less often.
In view of the current social situation, almost one-third of respondents (31.5%) are also prepared to restrict central elements of democracy, such as controversial debates, parliamentary control or separation of powers, or to give them up in favor of a supposedly more effective authoritarian political leadership.
Such autocracy acceptance is found among individuals across the political spectrum. These rates do differ among party preferences surveyed via the so-called Sunday poll. They range from 14.8% among Bündnis 90/Die Grünen voters to 50.1% among AfD voters. Thus, autocracy acceptance is clearly not limited to the right-wing fringe. A rate of 23.5% is also found among rather educated persons with high school diplomas. At 37.4%, this rate is significantly higher among people with little education. At the same time, however, there can be no question of autocracy acceptance being limited to less educated subgroups. The findings show that autocracy acceptance extends to all social subgroups.
Particular effects come from expectations of having to personally experience economic restrictions in the near future in the area of fulfilling basic needs such as housing, energy supply, work or the provision of food. 61.1% think it is "likely" or "very likely" that they will have to limit their purchases of basic foodstuffs in the next 6 months. One-third (34.9%) expect to be unable to pay for heating and electricity in the foreseeable future; 24.0% expect to do so with regard to their rent. Just under one-fifth (18.3%) expect to lose their job in the next six months. Thus, expectations of personal economic burdens are very widespread in the case of basic needs.
Multiple burdens in the sense of expecting such restrictions are the rule. Only 34.5% of respondents expect no such constraints, 27.2% consider one of the constraints likely, and another 14.0% fear that two such economic burdens will occur for them. 14.1% expect three such individual constraints and 10.2% assume that all four constraints are likely to occur for them.
The higher the number of these expected burdens, the more pronounced the autocracy acceptance. For people without such constraints, it is 21.5% while this rate is 55.9% for four constraints.
If, in addition, decision-makers in our society are subjectively perceived as incapable of dealing with the central problems, the probability of endorsing autocratic political structures is again significantly increased. Without such a subjective assessment of decision-makers as incompetent and unwilling to solve the current problems and without the expectation of future economic constraints, the rate of autocracy acceptance is 10%. However, if the decision makers are deemed incompetent in this sense, even without the expectation of future economic constraints, this rate increases to 27.8%. In the case of multiple stresses, on the other hand, the rate of autocracy acceptance, if at the same time the decision-makers are classified as incompetent, is 57.8%.
Given the prevalence of autocracy acceptance across the entire political spectrum, this high prevalence of autocracy acceptance of 31.5% of the population should not be equated with a correspondingly high level of right-wing extremism. Rather, we are dealing with crisis-induced tendencies toward an erosion of trust in democratic structures and processes, which should be understood as attempts to cope with insecurity by turning to supposedly particularly competent authorities who offer security. The political challenge here is to counter the danger that right-wing extremist and anti-democratic populist organizations can easily tap into this in the immediate everyday lives of citizens in order to broaden their base and pursue their political goals. In this respect, an important target group for extremism prevention can be located here.
For more information on these findings, see:
UHH Spotlight No. 7 (2023). (Juli 2023). Demokratie in Konfrontation mit Krieg, Klimawandel, Flucht und Inflation. Einstellungen zu Demokratie und die Verbreitung von Autokratieakzeptanz in Deutschland. https://www.jura.uni-hamburg.de/die-fakultaet/professuren/kriminologie/media/spotlight-no-7-uhh-giga-midint.pdf
„Menschen in Deutschland: International“: Findings from the second wave in February 2023
The second wave of the online survey "Menschen in Deutschland: International" (MiDInt) took place from February 8 to 22, 2023. It reached n=2,428 people from whom usable data are available. A review of the sociodemographic characteristics of the reached sample shows that these results can be classified as approximately representative for the German-speaking adult population in Germany. In terms of its quality, the sample of the second wave of the survey corresponds to a large extent to what was also achieved in the first wave. In this respect, comparisons of changes over time on the basis of these two data sources are possible without significant distortions.
For more information on the sample reached and the survey instrument used in this wave of the survey, see:
Kleinschnittger, J. , Farren, D., Brettfeld, K., Richter, T. & Wetzels, P. (2023). Menschen in Deutschland: International (MiDInt). Untersuchungsdesign, Stichprobe, Erhebungsinstrument und Codebuch zu Welle 2 (Feb. 2023). MOTRA-Forschungsbericht No. 8 aus dem Institut für Kriminologie an der Fakultät für Rechtswissenschaft. Hamburg: Universität Hamburg. https://doi.org/10.25592/uhhfdm.11836
Results on climate change: concerns about climate change, attitudes toward climate action, and attitudes toward lawbreaking and civil disobedience as forms of protest
Similar to the first wave of the MiDInt survey, in February 2023 around three-quarters of respondents, i.e. a very large majority, expressed clear concerns about climate change. This was particularly pronounced among young people.
As a result, a very significant proportion of participants were in favor of climate protection measures, some of them very far-reaching, which are associated with considerable restrictions, interference with individual rights or financial outlays: 68% were in favor of the permanent introduction of a 9 euro ticket. 43% agreed to a speed limit of a maximum of 100 km/h. 47.2% were in favor of a ban on domestic flights and 41.3% even advocated expropriation of unused agricultural land for the construction of wind turbines.
Targeted norm violations as forms of protest, e.g. road blockades in the context of demands for more climate protection, were rejected by the majority. However, at around 10%, such actions also met with approval from a quite substantial minority. Among young people under 40, this rate is by far the highest at 17.4%. Chaining oneself to a tree to prevent a construction measure was found to be correct by 16.8% of the total population. Among younger people under 40, however, the acceptance of this, at 24.2%, was about twice as high as among older people (40-60 years: 13.5%; 60 years and older: 10.3%).
All in all, the following was found on the subject of climate change, climate protection and protests on the subject of the climate crisis: the younger the respondents, the higher their concerns about climate change, the greater their willingness to support intervention-intensive and sometimes drastic measures to protect the climate, and the greater their acceptance of violations of the law and civil disobedience as forms of protest.
For more information on these findings, see:
Brettfeld, K., Farren, D., Kleinschnittger, J., Richter, T. & Wetzels, P. (2023). Besorgnisse wegen der Folgen des Klimawandels, Akzeptanz von Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz und Einstellungen zu Regelverletzung und zivilem Ungehorsam als Protestformen. MOTRA-Spotlight 04/23. Wiesbaden: BKA. https://doi.org/10.57671/motra-2023004
„Menschen in Deutschland: International“: Findings from the first wave in November 2022
The first wave of the online survey "Menschen in Deutschland: International" (MiDInt) took place between November 11 and 21, 2022. A total of 2,429 people were reached from whom usable information was available. A review of the sociodemographic data shows that the results obtained on the basis of this sample from a large online access panel are roughly representative of the adult population in Germany.
Attitudes towards climate change and opinions on the World Climate Conference
One of the questions in the first wave of MiDInt concerned attitudes about climate change and opinions about the 27th World Climate Change Conference, which took place in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in November 2022, around the same time as the MiDInt survey.
Well over two-thirds of respondents (77.4%) expressed concerns about global climate change and its impact on their daily lives. Just over a third even expressed very great concern in this regard (35.6%). In line with this, the vast majority of respondents also saw the World Climate Conference as very important "so that all countries really do something about climate change" (73.0%) or because it would "increase political attention to climate change" and help to "seriously address the problems" associated with it (70.2%).
However, many of the respondents also expressed pronounced skepticism at the same time, because "..., there is only talk and nothing happens afterwards anyway" (57.6%).
Furthermore, it was found that a relevant proportion of respondents consider scientific studies that prove climate change to be faked (23.0%) or deny the existence of climate change altogether (17.8%). Climate change denial and skeptical attitudes toward scientific research on climate development and climate impacts were disproportionately evident among people with low education.
In summary, a large majority of people in Germany expressed concern about the climate crisis. The vast majority also supports the goals pursued with the 27th World Climate Conference in 2022. However, at the same time, doubts and skepticism about the actual implementation of the measures adopted at the international level to limit the rise in temperature can also be seen to a large extent. This could be countered through education and a transparent and credible presentation of the actual climate protection activities. Furthermore, a clear skepticism of science was evident among a quite relevant minority. A denial of the reality of climate change was also evident in about one fifth. This was particularly prevalent among people with a low level of education. This is an important target group for education and information on the climate crisis, which should be addressed offensively in an appropriate manner.
For more information on these findings, see Brettfeld, K., Kleinschnittger, J., Richter, T., Wetzels, P. (2023). Perspectives on the climate crisis: prevalence of concerns about kima change and attitudes toward the 2022 World Climate Conference. MOTRA Spotlight No. 3, available online at: https://www.jura.uni-hamburg.de/die-fakultaet/professuren/kriminologie/media/spotlight-no3-uhh-midint-18012023.pdf
Attitudes towards refugees and integration support measures for refugees seeking protection
Another topic of MiDInt concerns the current challenges of the increased arrival of people seeking protection and refugees in Germany. Attitudes toward refugees and measures to support and integrate them were discussed.
With regard to attitudes toward refugees, a clear majority (61.1%) expressed the view that this would mainly bring violent criminals to Germany. 45% associate refugees with a general threat to their way of life and values. The view that refugees living in Germany do more harm than good to our economy is rejected by a slight majority, but here too a total of 45% tend to agree or completely agree with such a negative perception.
With regard to currently discussed support and integration measures, almost two-thirds (64.1% ) of respondents rejected faster citizenship for refugees. Only 35.9% were in favor. At the same time, however, more than three-fifths (61.3%) agreed somewhat or completely with the statement that refugees' school and vocational qualifications should be recognized more unbureaucratically. Only 41.6% of people in Germany said they would like to see housing made available for refugees in their neighborhood. At 58.4%, a clear majority rejected this.
In summary, it was quite clear that a considerable group of people in Germany express negative evaluations of the influx of refugees to Germany. This high level of negative attitudes toward refugees harbors considerable potential for social conflict and should be addressed by political and social decision-makers in an appropriate manner.
On this question of the effects of public communication by societal decision-makers about how to deal with refugees, a survey experiment in the MiDInt study showed that explicitly emphasizing positive aspects of the influx of refugees significantly shifts respondents' attitudes toward increased acceptance of refugees. This is true both when credible societal institutions and decision-makers emphasize the economic benefits in terms of the shortage of skilled labor in the German labor market and when they emphasize a human rights moral obligation to support people seeking protection. Combined with an optimistic attitude and perspective in terms of our society's ability to deliver, these aspects proved to be highly effective influencing factors capable of contributing to a significant increase in the acceptance of refugees and their integration by the population in Germany.
For further information and more detailed analyses, see Richter, T., Kleinschnittger, J., Bretteld, K. & Wetzels, P. (2023). Threat and integration: attitudes toward refugees in Germany. GIGA Focus Global: No. 1/2023. https://doi.org/10.57671/gfgl-23011
Attitudes towards protests and human rights violations in Iran and their correlations with hostility towards Muslims in Germany
As part of the first wave of MiDInt, data was also collected on the perception and assessment of the protests and human rights violations in Iran by the population in Germany and their possible spillover effects on attitudes toward Muslims in Germany, in particular on the spread of hostility toward Muslims.
It was found that the majority of the population (55.2%) supports Germany's support of the protesting people in Iran. Even more people (about 2/3) are in favor of further sanctions against the Iranian regime (65.1%). By comparison, however, there is significantly less acceptance of an unbureaucratic reception of persecuted people from Iran (49.1%). In this respect, the problem of a currently lower acceptance of the immigration of people seeking protection to Germany, which is also known from the other analyses of MiDInt as well as from other studies, is confirmed.
Furthermore, also in line with other recent studies, it was found that anti-Muslim attitudes are widespread in Germany. They are found in about half of the respondents (50.1%). There are clear correlations here with the perception and evaluation of the protests and human rights violations in Iran: The more strongly people view the events in Iran in a generalized way as confirmation of Islam's hostility toward human rights and democracy as a whole, the higher their negative attitude toward Muslims in Germany. On the other hand, however, the protests in Iran are also seen as a growing effort by Muslims to defend individual freedoms. Such a view goes hand in hand with a significant reduction in hostility toward Muslims. In sum, it can be said that the events in Iran are being registered very sensitively by the population. The events there and their interpretation thus prove to be very significant and effective with regard to radicalization processes in terms of the spread of intolerance and Muslimophobia toward Muslims living in Germany.